Hu Jintao Abruptly Walked Out from China's Party Congress – Dementia or Defiance?

And what it reveals about Chinese politics

So, what happened to China’s former president Hu Jintao?

The Party’s Congress concluded on October 22 in Beijing.

Most unexpected was Hu Jintao’s peculiar exit from the meeting, right before the Party voted to amend its Party Constitution. Hu Jintao, the predecessor of Xi Jinping, was viewed by many in the West as a pro-reform, Liberalist leader.

At the beginning of the footage released by AFP shortly after the incident, a junior staff tried to persuade Hu to leave. But Mr. Hu seemed reluctant. Xi Jinping, sitting on Hu’s right-hand side, leaned over to check up on Hu. Li Zhanshu (unrelated to Li Keqiang the PM; I will call him Li - not PM), another senior party leader sitting on Hu’s left side, collected Hu’s meeting documents and tried to get him away, but was stopped by Wang Huning, the Party’s ideology mastermind sitting further down to the left. During this time, Hu tried to grab Xi’s document, but Xi stopped him.

Below, I labeled each of the figures’ seat arrangements and their functions.

In the end, two junior staff had to get Hu out of his chair and escort him out. On his way out, Hu said something to both Xi and Li Keqiang (I will call him Li-PM, to distinguish him from the other Li — Li Zhanzhu), the current Prime Minister, while the latter two smiled and nodded awkwardly.

Media and China watchers are alerted

Because of the symbolism and sensitivity around this incident, it immediately drew wide attention from mainstream media and China watchers.

CNN related this incident to the unexpected exclusion of Li Keqiang (Li the PM) from the Party’s new Central Committee, a body of 205 party representatives that will elect the Politburo, a twentyish-member committee which will then elect the Standing Committee members, the supreme decision-making body within the CCP.

Reuters’ note regarding this incident was rather brief, although taking notes of the swift censorship around Hu on Chinese social media followed the incident.

A Wal Street Journal article subtitled that Hu’s “unceremonious departure illustrates a generational shift in power.”

BBC, on the other hand, interpreted it primarily as a “part of China’s power politics on full display,” the symbolic removal of a former leader that was deemed as more Liberal than Xi, although did not exclude the possibility that it was Hu’s deteriorating health triggered his peculiar leave.

VOA News, a publication hawkish on China, drew connections to Xi’s “crushed opposition to his rule,” although touched on the possibility of this being an “unfortunately timed senior moment” quoting Eurasia Group, a political consultancy.

My take? It’s unfortunate for Hu, but fortunate for China…

For an organization notoriously lacking transparency, Hu’s leave is certain to stir up speculations. But looking closely at the footage, it is highly likely that he is suffering from a form of senior dementia, possibly Alzheimer’s Disease.

Let’s revisit the footage to see if this theory sticks to the wall:

1.     Hu, who looked frail before the Congress sessions, was experiencing an episode of dementia. Xi and Li Zhanshu (Li - not PM), sitting right next to him, immediately spotted Hu’s abnormality. They summoned a junior staff to help, whose hurry drew the attention of camera crews. I presume not many camera crews were ready because the meeting was not scheduled to start for some additional time. The AFP crew was probably among the only few teams that caught this scene.

2.     Under the dementia attack, Hu Jintao was perplexed about the seat arrangement and his surroundings. For patients with dementia, their most recent memories are the first to go. He might have recognized Li Keqiang, a long-time underling and protégé of his, but was confused about Xi Jinping. Xi, on the other hand, looked concerned about Hu.

3.     Disoriented, Hu tried to grab a document nearby, which was probably Xi’s speech script for the following session. Xi had to stop him.

4.     Li (not PM) tried to help Hu, but Wang Huning stopped him — probably on concerns about the potential over-interpretations, or causing potential delays in the closing ceremony. As a current No.3 guy in the Party’s power structure, Li (not-PM) cannot be absent from the Congress’s closing ceremony.

5.     The junior staff had to coax Hu like a child into leaving, while Hu murmured to Xi and Li (PM) on his way out. The latter two smiled and nodded politely and awkwardly.

While this is unfortunate for Hu as an individual, it is fortunate for China. A public display of defiance from a prominent former leader like Hu Jintao would have signaled the power apparatus was severely impaired. For the stability of the regime, fortunately, this was not the case.

If Hu has dementia, how come he still serves on the Congress’s Presidium?

If Hu indeed has dementia, that would have been inconvenient and unfortunate, yet totally reasonable.

Hu is old. He is 79 years old this year, the same as Joe Biden. It is likely that Biden suffers from mild episodes of cognitive degradation, too, as often mocked by the Conservatives. Unlike Hu, Biden’s conditions are so far (arguably) mild and do not prevent him from fulfilling his functions.

But why did not CCP announce Hu’s condition; or perhaps most appropriately, discretely remove him from the Congress Presidium?

The Presidium is quite an important body within the Congress. It sets the agenda for the Congress, oversees the nomination of the candidates for various positions within the Party, enacts the election rules for these positions. It is a CCP norm to keep former top state leaders on the Congress Presidium as a token of appreciation absent of severe mistakes. Therefore both Hu Jintao and his predecessor, Jiang Zemin, attended the Congress.

Appointments of Hu and Jiang is not just of gesture value. In some ways, the appointment symbolizes the presence of the former leaders’ political fractions. Such a mechanism is instrumental to keep the power relatively checked and stable within the Party’s upper echelon. This is precisely why Hu’s departure stirred up much uneasiness among the China-watching community.

Removing Hu from the Presidium would set up a dangerous precedent. For instance, it would be utterly difficult to decide what health conditions quality be “unfit” for continued political relevance. Future application of this potential president could potentially create more frictions and discontent within the Party.

Keeping Hu in the central committee despite his condition is practical because he is just one of the 40-strong members of the Presidium. Whatever his health condition, he is unlikely to inflict any material damage to the Party apparatus. It might be inconvenient — or in Saturday’s episode, humiliating — but keeping him on is well worth the risk.

Therefore, the Chinese State Media only vaguely alluded to Hu’s health condition after he was escorted out due to the sensitivity around the Party Congress. But for outsiders, including many China watchers, this inevitably created lots of confusion and therefore invited a lot of speculation.

Conclusion

Hu Jintao’s unexpected departure from the Congress was not, as some speculated, open defiance to Xi’s power. Instead, it was most likely an unfortunate episode of Hu’s health conditions.

The profound question from this incident is, why a supposedly-innocent but surely-unfortunate episode of Hu triggered so much anxiety and inaccurate speculation? The regime can of course attribute it to some external parties with malign intent. But the truth is, the Party itself is much to blame. It never made a serious effort to properly communicate its message to the outside world. A bad PR might not be a big deal back then when China was much smaller and weaker. But given where China is standing today, the country needs to address this problem, NOW.

What it does reveal is the need for the CCP to modernize its mindset and approach to public relations. The stakeholders of China not only include an increasingly sophisticated domestic audience, but also individuals and organization from abroad that just will not subscribe to the CCP’s old-fashioned way of propaganda. The Chinese government needs to come up with better ways of sending across its message to the world to provide more assurance. Providing more transparency is an important first step to improving its national image on the international stage.

I am in no position to change your political stance on China, but I do want to offer a refreshing perspective to better understand China. Like always, I hope this article shed a beam of light on a rather opaque situation.

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Over the coming weeks, I plan to do more deep dives into the Party’s 20th Congress. If you want to learn more, please subscribe!